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UK housing market to beat expectations in 2024: Halifax

The UK housing market rebounded in 2024, better than expected, supported by lower mortgage rates and strong wage growth, Halifax said.

Halifax's latest housing market review and outlook shows property prices have reached a record high of £298,083 following annual growth of +4.8%, with transaction volumes returning to pre-pandemic levels. .

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Lenders say affordability has improved but remains a challenge for many buyers and interest rate declines are widely expected to slow, impacting those who have not yet refinanced older existing deals. said.

Looking ahead to next year, Halifax expects home prices to increase moderately in the range of 0% to +3%, and the number of transactions to increase slightly further.

As in recent years, forecast uncertainty remains high given the current economic environment, the financial institution said.

Amanda Bryden, Head of Mortgage in Halifax, said: The first is lower mortgage rates, which could be up to 160 basis points below their peaks in 2022 and 2023. ”

“Secondly, income growth continues to keep up with the rise in consumer prices over the past few years.For new mortgages, monthly costs as a percentage of revenue have fallen from 33% to 29% last year. did.”

“This easing of financial pressures has driven mortgage demand to its highest level in more than two years, with volumes now back to pre-pandemic levels after falling around 20% at the start of the year, and buyer confidence increasing. It’s increasing.”

“Uneven availability of real estate for sale nationally relative to demand also continues to support prices. Mortgage rates are higher than they were a few years ago, making it easier to make monthly payments when moving. Some homeowners may be hesitant to sell to avoid an immediate increase in mortgage costs. Additionally, excluding the pandemic lockdown period, new construction completions rose in 2018. This is the lowest level since then.

Toby Leake, president of Propertymark NAEA, also commented on the Halifax report, saying: Mortgage offers will only continue to improve as inflation continues to trend downward and interest rates are reduced. ”

“With wages on a slight upward trend, easing affordability pressures for many, buyers and sellers are gaining more confidence and needing the economics they need to make their next home move a reality. You will receive support.”

“Alongside this, movers in England and Northern Ireland will see market and mortgage loan fluctuations in the coming months, as movers in England and Northern Ireland move forward with their next move to counter the stamp duty rise starting from April 2025. It is expected that the movement will become more active.”

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