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Previous BOE heads are asking for half point cuts to 4% at the next MPC meeting

According to former lieutenant governor Charlie Bean, the Bank of England should consider a half-point cut to combat the “crazy situation” created by Donald Trump's trade tariffs.

Previous policymakers argue that strong measures are needed to deal with the fallout from the US president's tariff war.

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Speaking to the Guardian, Bean said: “It's not just the tariffs that are the problem, but the huge uncertainty these actions have created, which delays the purchase and investment decisions by businesses and consumers.”

The chances of a quarter-point rate cut from 4.5% at the bank's policy committee's next meeting on May 8 have been raised to 95% this morning.

This is up from about 50% before “liberation day” on April 2, when Trump planned to fight US trade imbalances.

Traders are also forced to make two more basic interest rate cuts this year by August and December.

As Bean advises, if the committee adopts half-cuts next month, this will have a base fee of 3.75% or 3.5% by the end of the year. Bean worked at the bank for 14 years from 2000.

But another former fee setter, David Blanchflower, said Threadneedle Street should hold an emergency session before the next scheduled May meeting to consider deep reductions in borrowing costs. He was at MPC for three years starting in 2006.

Blanchflower said:

The United States imposes a minimum 10% tariff on imports from all countries that trade with the United States.

The UK faces 10% tariffs, while the EU has 20% tariffs and China faces 104% of the additional import taxes if it advances retaliation fees.

MPCs are surprised at the rate movements that are more than expected, but this doesn't happen frequently.

The most notable rate changes in recent years occurred in November 2008, when policymakers reduced 150 basis points as the global financial crisis unfolded.

Deutsche Bank said MPCs should see “sudden drops in research activity metrics” from agents and other data such as PMI and CBI reports.

German banks say interest rate setters should see signs of “over tightening of financial or credit terms” and “more evidence of cooling in the labour market” in preparation for the May decision.

Sanjay Raja, senior economist at Deutsche Bank, noted, “Even if you think that the “strong” interest rate reduction standards are still high given the uncertainty surrounding the global economy and the prospect of strengthening credit and financial conditions, you're still likely to see two votes at 50bps while continuing to adapt to the risks of greater interest rate reductions.”

However, investment banks are above consensus estimates, with four more interest rate cuts projected by the end of the year.

Today, Prime Minister Rachel Reeves told Congress: “This morning I spoke with the governor of the Bank of England (Andrew Bailey).

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