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Inflation Preview: High bills in April increase living expenses

Inflation is set to jump as index-linked invoices and taxes become effective when official cost-of-living data is released next week.

Deutsche Bank's forecast headline inflation will rise to 3.4% from 2.6% in April when energy and water prices begin to rise, as Deutsche Bank posts a printout on Wednesday.

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The data also includes “double whammy” of vehicle excise tax, council tax bills, changes to air passenger taxes and rising contributions to national living wages and employers to national insurance, says the German bank.

Sanjay Raja, senior economist at Deutsche Bank, added:

“The UK's core inflation continues to precede it in other countries, reflecting high-service inflation and corporate wage growth,” said Sven Jali Stein, an analyst at Goldman Sachs.

The US bank estimates that UK inflation will be at 3.5%.

The latest livelihood data came after official figures showed earlier this week that the UK economy grew by 0.7%, which was greater than expected in the first three months of the year.

However, the data was expected to affect UK growth before President Donald Trump raised tariffs on April 2nd in more than 75 countries.

Last week, the UK signed a contract with the US to reduce or remove duties on UK exports, but the baseline 10% collection applied to many countries will continue to be charged for most UK goods that are in the US.

The UK economy also raised its forecast to grow 1% this year, marking an upgrade from the 0.75% growth forecast in a February report.

However, rate setters expect energy prices to “support inflation to 3.5% in the third quarter.”

Money markets hope that two or three more cuts this year will boost a modest economy facing tariff uncertainty.

However, many economists predict that the Monetary Policy Commission could suspend rate cuts at its next June 19 meeting to measure how hot prices are reaching the economy as a whole.

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