Nationwide and other property experts say the Chancellor's move to lower the stamp duty threshold next spring will lead to a “surge” in transactions.
Rachel Reeves' budget will see a temporary increase in the zero-rate stamp duty threshold in England and Northern Ireland end at the end of March, returning it to its previous level. 
This upgrade was first announced in Liz Truss' mini-budget for September 2022 and is effectively the only major measure to survive that fiscal event.
For first-time buyers, this means the zero rate band threshold will drop from £425,000 to £300,000. For other homebuyers, the zero rate band threshold drops from £250,000 to £125,000.
Robert Gardner, Chief Economist at Nationwide, said: “The main impact of the stamp duty changes will be on the timing of property transactions, as buyers will want to ensure they complete their home purchase before the tax changes take effect. There is a high possibility that it will.”
“This will lead to a spike in trading in the first three months of 2025, particularly March, and a corresponding slowdown in trading in the following three to six months, as happened with the impact of previous stamp duty changes. I will.”
“However, given that the stamp duty reduction has been in place for some time and its expected expiration date is well known, fluctuations in activity are likely to be somewhat less pronounced in this case.
Gardner added: “Home affordability is also still relatively stagnant at this time as a result of the high interest rate environment that has generally suppressed housing market activity.” Nevertheless, until this period of volatility passes, it will be more difficult to judge the market's underlying strength. ”
Nationwide said changes to the stamp duty threshold would affect around one in five people on the FTB, but added: “The impact will vary widely across countries and is largely a result of differences in house prices across the UK. There is.”
The report added that the south-east is “likely” to be hit hardest, as 40% of FTBs are currently paying between £300,000 and £425,000 for a home. This change will cost these buyers an average of £2,900 extra.
Karen Noy, a mortgage expert at Quilter, said that among FTBs, “With this deadline looming, we may see some activity from prospective buyers trying to complete their purchases before the tax hike causes prices to rise. I can't do it.''
Yopa Chief Executive Officer Verona Frankisch added: “The looming stamp duty relief deadline in March next year will certainly add fuel to the fire for buyers who are currently in the transaction process, or who are looking to buy at this time of Christmas.
“However, while many people will want to transact before the stamp duty threshold rises, that does not mean there will be a cliff edge in the housing market next year.
“Stamp duty has long been a problem for homebuyers, but it has never been significant enough to deter people from buying a home.”
