Inflation is expected to exceed the Bank of England's 2% target in October.
Markets predict that when the National Statistics Office's statistics are released on November 20, the inflation rate will rise from 1.7% in September to 2-2.2% in October. 
The cause of this increase is said to be the soaring cost of household utilities.
In early November, the BoE cut the benchmark interest rate by 0.25%, from 5% to 4.75%. The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 in favor of the rate cut.
Katherine Mann was the lone vote against cutting borrowing costs on the BoE's rate-setting committee.
Mann warned last week that high energy prices could push up inflation and slow the pace of rate cuts, suggesting fuel prices are more likely to rise than fall in the coming years.
“This is the first inflation announcement since the budget, but the impact of further fiscal stimulus is unlikely to be felt for several months,” said Steve Matthews, investment director at Canada Life Asset Management.
“Given this, and with the BoE stressing that it is in no hurry to implement further rate cuts this year, we expect interest rates to remain stable in December. , an additional rate cut is expected to occur in February, followed by quarterly rate cuts thereafter.
“Looking forward, the central bank will also closely monitor President Trump’s ‘America First’ policy, as the introduction of higher tariffs will have global ramifications and could lead to higher inflation rates worldwide in 2025. Because it is possible.”
Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey admitted in October that inflation had fallen “sooner than expected”.
“I think the end of inflation is happening faster than we expected, but there are still real question marks as to whether there have been any structural changes in the economy,” he said.
Justin Moy, managing director at EHF Mortgages, believes the expected rise in October's inflation numbers will “complete the rate cut in 2024.”
“The base rate will remain at 4.75% for some time, and swap rates will likely continue to rise slightly each week,” Moi said.
He added: “Inflation is expected to exceed 2% (as of November 20), but given the impact of the US presidential transition at the end of 2025, it seems unlikely that the Bank of England will cut interest rates in early 2025. “This will give us enough ammunition not to do anything,” he added. January. “
“Our message to mortgage borrowers continues to be to commit to your mortgage and next contract as soon as possible, while ensuring you are as well prepared as possible for any further rise in the money market.”
Danny Power, director of business development at Black & White Bridging, suggests the mortgage market will feel the “ripple effects” of the expected rise in inflation tomorrow.
Mr Power said: 'Borrowers and lenders alike face a tough situation, especially given the lackluster policy set out in Labour's budget. Without meaningful support and incentives, affordability will continue to decline. The burden will only increase.”
Richard Pike, chief sales and marketing officer at Phoebus Software, added: 'It is probably still too early to understand the full impact of this month's rate cut, the Autumn Budget and Ofgem's latest energy price cap. ” he adds.
“However, inflation was very low in September at 1.7% and is likely to rise tomorrow as economic factors pass through, although it is likely to remain just below the 2% target. and is likely to increase further into 2025.
Meanwhile, David Hollingworth, associate director at L&C Mortgages, said: “The central bank itself has made it clear that it expects inflation to rise again and that in itself should not cause any shock.” Ta.
“However, if this number is higher than the market expects, it could further underline the growing expectation that interest rates will remain high for an extended period of time. could gain further momentum.”
“Of course, if inflation is lower than expected, that could be viewed favorably and help relieve some of the pressure on fixed interest rates, which continue to rise and fall at a pace.”
Inflation is expected to be only marginally above the central bank's target, but Movela chief executive Nick Hale suggested that the rise alone “will not have a material impact on December's MPC decision”. are.
“However, with the economy barely moving in the past quarter and housing activity sluggish, a cut in the benchmark interest rate early in the new year could provide some much-needed momentum. But for now, the central bank's cautious wait-and-see attitude remains It is likely that this will continue.”
