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MPC Rate Preview: Hold the line until next year

Economists said disappointing figures for the UK economy are not expected to cause Bank of England rate-setters to leave interest rates on hold at 4.75% on Thursday.

Concerns about the Budget, which sets out spending plans of £70bn over the next five years, continue to weigh on confidence, the Office for National Statistics said today, with economic growth in October at 0.1 for the second consecutive month. It was announced that the company had reduced its sales by %. .

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Money markets believe there is only an 8% chance of a rate cut at the Monetary Policy Committee's final meeting on December 19th.

This comes as the European Central Bank yesterday cut deposit rates from 3.25% to 3%, the fourth rate cut this year, and the US Federal Reserve plans to tighten interest rates next week from a range of 4.5% to 4.75%. This came despite expectations that interest rates would be cut again. American economy.

Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey said last week that he expects the benchmark interest rate to be cut four times by 0.25% next year from the current 4.75%.

The Bank of England has cut interest rates by 0.25% twice this year, but inflation currently stands at 2.3%.

Lindsay James, investment strategist at Quilter Investors, said: “With other central banks opting to cut rates, it is increasingly likely that the Bank of England will decide to unilaterally leave interest rates at current levels at its December meeting. It's increasing,” he said.

“The UK inflation outlook remains uncertain, but while there are signs that wage inflation will fall significantly over the coming year, growth remains weak, which could prompt the central bank to return to rate cuts in the new year.”

Matt Swannell, Principal Economic Adviser at EY ITEM Club, added: “The message from the majority of the Monetary Policy Committee at its November meeting was loud and clear: we intend to reduce the Bank Rate ‘gradually’.” Data available so far suggests that the new There is no reason to draw directions. ”

“While activity was slightly weaker than the Monetary Policy Committee expected, the EY ITEM club believes it was not weak enough to mobilize a majority of its members to vote in favor of successive cuts in the bank rate.”

Sanjay Raja, senior economist at Deutsche Bank, went so far as to say that Thursday's meeting would be a “boring affair” and that members would vote 9-0 to hold off.

Mr Raja added: “Uncertainty around the impact on the budget, particularly the impact of the employer national insurance contribution increase, means the Monetary Policy Committee will likely hold off for December before deciding on its next action. We will choose to wait for further data.” ”

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