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MPC Preview: Keep ahead of Spring Statement

The Bank of England is expected to maintain its base rate at 4.5% next week as it weighs on the weight of the UK economy, fears of the world trade war and the prime minister's spring statement.

Official figures show that in January the economy signed a 0.1% contract.

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Economists had forecast growth of 0.1% in January after a 0.4% uplift in December.

However, a volatile three-month reading shows that the economy was estimated to have risen 0.2% through January.

Sanjay Raja, senior British economist at Deutsche Bank, said the central bank's monetary policy committee's “gradual and prudent” approach has leaned towards the need for consecutive rate cuts after a quarter-point cut in February.

This comes after a warning from Bank Bank Governor Andrew Bailey that this month would cause “substantial” damage to UK growth and hike prices.

Deutsche Bank predicted a 7-2 vote split in favor of Hold on Thursday, with outside members Swatidingra and Katherine Mann likely to vote for half-point cuts “in light of demand-based debilitating views on the UK economy.”

Prime Minister Rachel Reeves is expected to boost the defense budget in a spring statement on March 26th and cut welfare spending to announce further growth measures.

Last month, Dhingra highlighted that policymakers were conflicting at meetings over whether “gradual” reductions in the base rate should be limited to one cut every three months.

Matt Swannell, Chief Economic Advisor of the EY Items Club, said: “I don't see any reason why a large portion of the Monetary Policy Committee wants to break through the established tempo of reducing bank charges at all other meetings.

Swannell adds: “With the knock-off from the course in the last two years of spring, it appears unlikely that the Bank of England will consider deviating from its current cut-hold tempo until at least August.

“By then, the Commission will learn more about the impact of changes in national living wages, employer NICs and international trade policies, and look at and analyze the government's latest tax and expenditure plans.”

However, Deutsche Bank expects fast paces in May, August, November and December, with bank charges reaching 3.5% by the end of the year.

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